Clinton Lost

It has begun. Donald Trump has accumulated enough electoral votes to secure the victory and already I have seen videos of people marching through various streets of America chanting, “not my president!” Therein lies the difference between a spoiled expectancy and coming to grips with reality. Hillary Clinton lost this election more than Donald Trump won it. However, Trump is a lifelong salesman who is accustomed to asking for and closing a sale. Clinton expected the win and so did everyone who sided with her against Trump, never really asking for the sale but expecting it because the alternative was so reviled.

I am old enough now to have experienced more than a few of these Presidential elections. I was unhappy with the result in 1992 when Bill Clinton won with significantly less than a majority, and also when he repeated the feat in 1996. At no point in time immediately after those elections or subsequently did I ever mutter the words, “not my president.” I sincerely wish that the people (mostly celebrities) who threaten to leave the country, like spoiled little crybabies who stamp their feet when they don’t get their way, would actually follow up with their threats and hit the road, Jack!

A lot of blame has already fallen on the wrong shoulders. The emails did not do her in. Protectionism did not drive him to victory. I think the populous, and most of the unemployed and underemployed who have yet to recover from the Great Recession, were and still are angry that no one from Wall Street has suffered at all following a mortgage and debt catastrophe that was created inside those investment banks. To make matters worse, Hillary Clinton received several $225,000 speaking fees from those very investment banks that created the housing disaster. In the eyes of the lower middle class in this country, those speaking fees look very much like advanced bribes to continue to create more “financial innovation” while Hillary potentially looked the other way; but that’s conjecture on my part.

The “rednecks” who drove Trump to victory in their dirt covered elevated trucks and jeeps wanted a genuine outsider to go to the White House. Hillary was and still is anything but an outsider, and she downright sucks at closing the sale.

How Much Better Can it Get?

That’s what market participants and election pundits needed to be asking themselves at two significant points in this fiasco otherwise known as this summer’s election cycle. I borrowed a couple of screenshots from Nate Silver’s website, 538.com. Have a look:

augusthillarylead

octoberhillarylead

I put two arrows on the chart of the S&P500 to show exactly when Hillary Clinton enjoyed her biggest lead(s) over Donald Drumpf.

screen-shot-2016-11-04-at-11-05-14-am

As I write this today my prediction is that Hillary will win. However, I dislike the both of them.

Two Wrongs

Two Wrongs

Anyway, the time to hedge against a perceived worst case scenario was when Hillary had her largest lead(s). If Drumpf pulls an upset on Tuesday, I have no idea what to expect from the market, but my perception is that all of the hedging and/or selling has already been done.

Stay safe out there.