Recency Bias

If I put 4.5 billion blue and red marbles in an opaque jar, and the first 150 that you pull out are red, would you believe that any blue marbles existed?

My local weather finally turned. November and December were too warm compared to their recorded historical averages. That is just the way it goes sometimes. It is much nicer now, and by that I mean that I get to use my electric blanket at night. I refuse to turn on my heater. I live in Florida. We get freeze warnings occasionally in late January or February, but my winters are mostly mild.

I think the argument over whether or not the planet is going through a climate change is a moot point. Planet earth is always changing, and to think that we caused an overall rise in temperature is just nuts. Perhaps we did, but I think our sample size is too small to know the cause.

If we take it as fact from the Evangelical Christians that the planet is only 6,000 years old, and we have had the ability to accurately measure temperature for 150 years, the last 150 years mind you, there are still too many data points that cannot be collected to know if the planet is permanently warming. Now consider the scientific view, based on the big bang theory and the speed with which things are flying around through the known universe, that the planet is closer to 4.5 billion years old. How can we realistically know if the recent warming trend is man’s fault or if the planet is simply transitioning through another cycle of cooling and warming that it has been going through during its entire existence? I do not think we can know for sure, which makes the argument over global warming a complete waste of time.